It's finally here. When Roland Garros started, there were two finals that everyone was looking forward to. It was either Nadal-Djokovic or Nadal-Federer. Well, the latter is here, after Roger Federer's dramatic 4 set win over Djokovic that many consider to be the best match since the 2008 Wimbledon final between Nadal and Federer. This is the fifth match at Roland Garros between the two of them, with Nadal winning all four. This is their first meeting at a major since the 2009 Australian Open final, with Nadal winning an epic 5 set match. Federer is coming into this match at a much different point than all of his previous French Open finals, beating Djokovic in the aforementioned instant classic. After the jump, we'll look at each area of this match.
Forehand: Advantage Federer
This is a close one, but Federer's forehand has been vintage Federer this tournament. He has been able to do anything with it, and his match against Djokovic showed this. That was one of the best performances off his forehand that we've seen in a long time, and it was a major reason why he won. Nadal's forehand has historically been the major weapon he has used against Federer in the past, but at a lot of times this tournament, it has been landing short. If he can get up to Federer's shoulder on the backhand side, then Federer is in trouble.
Backhand: Advantage Nadal
Because of that match-up advantage that Nadal has, Federer's backhand has been the weak part in his game. However, Nadal's backhand has not been stellar so far this tournament, but it is still a better match-up against Federer than, fore example, Murray's backhand. One thing to watch is Federer's backhand up the line. If it's on, he has a chance.
Serve: Advantage Federer
This is a huge weapon for Federer, and he'll need to be spot on with it tomorrow to have a shot. It was unbelievable against Djokovic, and he'll need to replicate that against Nadal. Nadal's serve has been very good, but he has faced an uncharacteristic number of break points this tournament.
Speed/Defense: Advantage Nadal
This is Nadal's biggest advantage, and this is the main reason, along with the forehand, that he was won five times here in Paris. Federer's defense has been top notch as well, especially against Djokovic, but Nadal's defense is on another level.
Prediction: Federer in 5
Perhaps I'm picking this with my gut instead of my head, but it seems that Federer, after his amazing win against Djokovic, is coming into this tournament with much more confidence than he has at any point in the past. This is the best chance he's had to beat Nadal here, and probably for the foreseeable future, and I think he will pull it off. It should be a great match though.
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