Sunday, June 19, 2011

The Big 3 and the Brit: The Preview of the 2011 Gentleman Singles Championships at Wimbledon

All eyes at Wimbledon will be on the top 4 seeds, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Roger Federer and Andy Murray. Rafael Nadal is the defending champion at SW19, and him and Roger Federer have combined to win all of the titles since Federer won in 2003. Those two have to be the clear favorites, especially because they both reached the final at Roland Garros. The two other contenders are very fascinating, with Novak Djokovic being the hottest player on tour, beating Nadal four times this spring and beating Federer twice. He was felled by Federer in French Open semifinals, but he's still incredibly dangerous. Finally, the fourth seed, Andy Murray, is the highest ranked player from Great Britain and by far the best chance to win a major on either side. He is carrying the flag, so to speak and for further analysis of Murray, check out this post. Nevertheless, it should be a fantastic Championships, with many other dangerous top players lurking right below the top 4 seeds. Tomas Berdych, who is the defending champion, Robin Soderling, former quarterfinalist here, and Andy Roddick, three time finalist are all players who have the pedigree to make a run and potentially give a huge scare to the top guys. After the jump, we'll look at the draw, quarter by quarter, and we'll have predictions.


Quarter Number One
Top Seeds: Rafael Nadal, Tomas Berdych, Mardy Fish
Dark Horses:  Milos Raonic, Juan Martin del Potro

This is Rafael Nadal's quarter, but there are a few dangerous opponents in his path to the semifinals. The other highest seed is Tomas Berdych, who defeated Roger Federer and Robin Soderling last year on his way to the finals, losing to Nadal. The third highest seed is Mardy Fish, who is on a career resurgence, and looks to make a run here. A couple dark horses who have real chances are Milos Raonic and Juan Martin del Potro. Del Potro never has had too much success on the grass, but his draw is rather easy and he can definitely win a few rounds and make noise in this draw. The other underdog, Milos Raonic, has never played a match at Wimbledon but definitely has the game, explosiveness, and the drive to make a run. He reached the 4th round of the Australian Open, and grass seems to suit his game much better.

Quarter Number Two
Top Seeds: Andy Murray, Andy Roddick, Gael Monfils
Dark Horses: Richard Gasquet, Stanislas Wawrinka

This seems to be a draw ripe for the two Andys. Gael Monfils has never had much success on grass, and Gasquet and Wawrinka are known for being consistent third round losers. Roddick and Murray, on the other hand, have shown much success on the turf at Wimbledon, and it looks like they should meet in the quarterfinals. Ivo Karlovic, the big serving Croatian, and Marin Cilic, have an opportunity to make a run in this tournament.

Quarter Number Three
Top Seeds: Roger Federer, David Ferrer, Jo Wilfried Tsonga
Dark Horses: John Isner, Nicolas Almagro

This is Roger Federer's quarter, no doubt about it. There is really no one who stands between him and a 4th round berth. However, once he gets there, he might find a very tricky opponent there. If John Isner manages to get past Nicolas Mahut in their first round match without equaling their 70-68 match from last year, then he has a great chance to meet Federer in the Round of 16. On the other half of the draw, look for Jo Wilfried Tsonga. He defeated Nadal at Queens Club, which is a great accomplishment, and with this draw, he could legitimately reach the quarterfinal. The other highest seed is David Ferrer, who is mainly looked at as a clay court specialist. He has, however, defeated Nadal this year in Melbourne, and he could surprise a lot of people and make a deep run.

Quarter Number Four
Top Seeds: Novak Djokovic, Robin Soderling, Jurgen Melzer
Dark Horses: Michael Llodra, Viktor Troicki, Nikolay Davydenko

This is an interesting quarter, and, while it isn't necessarily wide open, there is the biggest chance of upsets happening in this quarter. For example, Robin Soderling, perennial quarterfinalist at seemingly every major tournament, faces Philipp Petzschner, who won the tournament in Halle, Germany, in the first round. Davydenko, who on any given day could upset a tier 2 player on tour, could make a run. Jurgen Melzer, who is known more for his clay court acumen, has the difficult game that could lead him to the fourth round. Also, Michael Llodra, a serve and volleyer, could turn back the clock on the lawns of Wimbledon and challenge many top players. However, with the way Djokovic is playing, it doesn't seem anyone can stop his assault on the world number one ranking.

Predictions

Quarterfinalists
Andrew: Nadal, Berdych, Murray, Monfils, Ferrer, Federer, Soderling, Djokovic
Brandon: Nadal, Fish, Murray, Roddick, Tsonga, Federer, Soderling, Djokovic

Semifinalists
Andrew: Nadal, Murray, Federer, Djokovic
Brandon: Nadal, Roddick, Federer, Djokovic

Finalists
Andrew: Nadal, Djokovic
Brandon: Roddick, Djokovic

Champion
Andrew: Nadal over Djokovic in 5
Brandon: Djokovic over Roddick in 3

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