It's finally time. The four men remaining in the tournament will be whittled down to two. These are two dream semis, with the top 4 seeds being in the final four. This is only the 12th time in history this has happened at a major. First up on Phillip Chatrier, Rafael Nadal plays Andy Murray, and the second match up is Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer. After the jump we'll take a look at each match-up and give predictions.
Men's SF Number One: Rafael Nadal vs. Andy Murray
The Scotsman continues his quest for his first major title, but in his way stands the five time winner at Roland Garros, Rafael Nadal. Murray has had some success against Nadal, having a head to head of 4 wins as opposed to 10 losses, which, while not ideal, is a lot less terrible than most other players against Nadal. Nadal is 3-0 on clay against him. The last time these two met was in Monte Carlo this Spring, with Nadal winning in 3. This should be a very interesting clash of styles, with two relatively defensive players playing on a defensive surface. Another factor that might impact this match is Murray's ankle injury, which he suffered before his 4th round match against Viktor Troicki. It affected him greatly during that match, but it didn't seem to hurt him that much against Juan Ignacio Chela. Nadal is a different beast, however, and if it is still lingering, Nadal will make Murray suffer.
Forehand: Advantage Nadal
Nadal's topspin forehand is able to generate so much spin, and when it is on, it penetrates the court very well. However, his forehand has been off and on lately, but it was on against Soderling, so it should be at its best form tomorrow. Murray's forehand is obviously good, and he can dictate with it, but it isn't the force that Nadal's is.
Backhand: Advantage Murray
Murray's backhand down the line is by far his best shot. This is his most favorable match-up with Nadal, as Nadal's backhand is his weaker side. If Murray can dictate where the point is played with his backhand, he has a great chance to pull off this upset.
Serve: Advantage Nadal
Murray's quarterfinal was filled with breaks by both players, and it seems his serve has been off a bit this tournament. Nadal's serve was extremely weak early in the tournament, but he seems to have found his old form.
Speed/Defense: Neutral
Against most players, Nadal has the best defense around, but Murray is probably the only player that has the defensive skills that Nadal has.
Intangibles: Advantage Nadal
Nadal is the five time winner here for a reason, and no one remaining has been able to beat him here. Murray has never been to this round of Roland Garros before, and the nerves might show
Prediction: Nadal in 4
Defensive skills being equal, this match will come down to who makes less errors and who has the more effective offense. On both of those counts, on the red clay of Paris, Nadal is superior. Murray should take a set, probably the first or second, but ultimately Nadal will win it going away.
Men's SF Number Two: Roger Federer vs. Novak Djokovic
This one has instant classic written all over it. Novak Djokovic has never made it to this round before, but he is on a 42 match win streak, and after beating Rafael Nadal four straight times, twice on the red clay of Madrid and Rome, his confidence is through the roof. Roger Federer, the 16 time major winner, is still a force to be reckoned with, coming in seeded number 3. He has had a very successful season as well, with making the semis in Australia, Madrid, and Indian Wells. He has only lost to someone not named Djokovic or Nadal twice this year, and he is hungry to regain his throne.
Forehand: Advantage Federer
Federer's forehand this tournament has been vintage Federer. It has been the best shot of the tournament by anyone in the field. The only thing comparable is Djokovic's backhand, which we'll get to later. Djokovic's forehand has improved vastly in the last year, and is now a major weapon he can use,
Backhand: Advantage Djokovic
This is Djokovic's main weapon, and Federer's main weakness. Djokovic's backhand is on another planet right now. Against Federer in Australia, this was the one shot that took him to victory. He can do anything with it. He can take it down the line, pump it crosscourt, or hit a nice drop shot. It really is remarkable. Federer's backhand has improved a lot under new coach Paul Annacone, but it is still not on Djokovic's level.
Serve: Neutral
Both players' serves are equally effective. Last year, the serve was a major weakness of Djokovic, but he has improved it vastly. Federer's is still one of the best in the game, but it is prone to fits of errors and double faults.
Speed/Defense: Advantage Djokovic
This is a slight advantage, and it really speaks more to the tenacity of Djokovic. He seems at times determined to get every ball back, and has pulled off some incredible defensive shots this tournament and in the past few months.
Intangibles: Advantage Djokovic
The streak, the confidence that comes with it, the wins over Nadal, they all give Djokovic the advantage here. However, Federer can't be counted out. Since 2005, he's only lost to Nadal and Soderling, making the finals 4 times, and winning one. He's won here before, and with the pressure squarely on Djokovic
Prediction: Novak Djokovic in 4
The tenacity of Djokovic will be too much, and he'll take advantage of a few lapses in Federer's play to win in 4.
No comments:
Post a Comment