Saturday, July 2, 2011

Number One vs. Number Two: Previewing the Dream Final

With all due respect to the greatest player of all time, Roger Federer, most tennis pundits were looking forward to a final that pitted current world number one Rafael Nadal and future world number one as of two days from now, Novak Djokovic. This is the match many were anticipating at Roland Garros, but as we all know, Roger Federer ruined those plans. Now they will face off in a major final again, and ironically, Djokovic would probably have had a better shot to dethrone Nadal at Roland Garros. Djokovic's movement on the grass is significantly weaker than his movement on clay and hard courts. That is the main thing to look for. If Djokovic is able to track down Nadal's deep shots, then he can defeat him. If not, then it might be a long and grueling match for Djokovic. After the jump, we'll look at the match-up, stroke by stroke
Gentlemen's Final: Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal

Forehand: Advantage Nadal
This is Nadal's main weapon, and he used it to it's best effect against Andy Murray in the semifinal. It has been well documented how amazing the shot is, but against Djokovic it's a bit less effective than against other players because of Djokovic's other-worldly backhand. Djokovic's forehand, while incredibly good and much improved, is not on the same level as Nadal's.

Backhand: Advantage Djokovic
Djokovic's backhand is clearly his best shot. He can do whatever he wants with it, and he's able to drive it into Nadal's forehand, which is something no other player in the world can do, and it is the main reason why he is going to become world number one on Monday, regardless of what happens tomorrow. Nadal's backhand is also incredibly solid, but, unlike Nadal's forehand, it can break down.

Serve: Advantage Nadal
Djokovic's serve has improved greatly, but Nadal's serve on grass is surprisingly and deceptively very good. He uses the grass to make his serve very difficult to attack, which Djokovic likes to do so much. On the return game, it doesn't seem as if Djokovic has quite figured out the grass, which will help Nadal. Djokovic's serve is also crucial. If he is winning free points and easy games with it, he can turn the pressure on Nadal, but if it's shaky, all the pressure comes back on him.

Movement/Defense: Advantage Nadal
Nadal's defense is very well documented, and it was on full display against Murray. However, the key to this match will be Djokovic's movement. If he can move with Nadal like he did against him in Madrid and Paris, then there's no reason he can't win. However, it has been his weakest component this fortnight so far, and he'll have to improve on it to win this match.

Predictions
Andrew: Nadal in 5
Brandon: Djokovic in 4

As with many Nadal matches, the first set is very important, but Djokovic has shown he is able to come back. We were split on this one. The main question is over a long and tough match, who does if favor? I believe because of the history these two have this year, Djokovic has gotten stronger as the match went on. Andrew believes that because Nadal has been there before and has beaten Djokovic in every major they have played, then he'll be the one to surge. Regardless, it should be an amazing match.

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